Trends to know for 2022DanSmo
FMI Consulting presented live (yes live, not online!!!) @ the Association of Industrial Real Estate Brokers (aire-brokers.org) luncheon this week in Chicago.
Some interesting takeaways and data points:
Trends to watch in 2022, it’s all interconnected:
- We are trending toward an inverted yield curve; the inversion point when short term yields are greater than long term yields. Early sign of Recession?
- Russia and Ukraine impact: flaming inflation, supply chain snarls, building material challenges, higher fuel, copper and aluminum costs
- Oil Prices are moving up rapidly, currently at a 9-year high. Will it settle?
- Inflation is at a 40-year high.
- New home sales have cooled off.
- Consumer Confidence is decreasing, that results in less spending.
- COVID’s lingering effects:
- Lockdown promotes move to online shopping.
- Cargo ships sitting at ports for weeks.
- Workers out sick or limited due to quarantine.
A quick recap of Q4 2021:
- 6.9% GDP growth, massive. Up 11.7% since January 2020.
- Unemployment continued to drop.
- The labor force participation continues be low, currently at 62.2%.
- Washington’s Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, getting the money out to projects.
- Supply Chain efficiency.
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